Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Robert Morris Colonials vs. Green Bay Phoenix
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01c13da19a30593773ac8482f3f1201796a3e7ce3b3b331e211128caaa78d953
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Robert Morris Colonialsof Robert Morris Colonials, Green Bay Phoenix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Robert Morris Colonials | 11c | 15,880$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,081.96 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Robert Morris Colonials | 50c | 9,210$4,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,608.96 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 285 | 39.6%113 W · 172 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Robert Morris Colonials | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 301 | 39.2%118 W · 183 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Green Bay Phoenix | 40c | 3,907$1,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,562.6 | 279 | 55.2%154 W · 125 L | +22.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 3,705$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.35 | 176 | 50.6%89 W · 87 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Green Bay Phoenix | 40c | 2,532$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.36 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 1,927$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.35 | 354 | 52.3%185 W · 169 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Robert Morris Colonials | 50c | 1,872$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.01 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Robert Morris Colonials | 50c | 1,620$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.57 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Green Bay Phoenix | 42c | 1,444$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.66 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Green Bay Phoenix | 49c | 1,365$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.62 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 1,247$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.67 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 555$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Robert Morris Colonials | 51c | 525.53$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 390$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Robert Morris Colonials | 52c | 362$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.36 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Green Bay Phoenix | 48c | 350.16$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.58 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 278.24$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.12 | 114 | 39.5%45 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Robert Morris Colonials | 48c | 259.73$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.06 | 163 | 41.7%68 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Robert Morris Colonials | 23c | 250.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.81 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Green Bay Phoenix | 49c | 220$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da9…e82dbacked Robert Morris Colonials | 51c | 210$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc643…1a02backed Green Bay Phoenix | 49c | 210$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 198.56$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.24 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Robert Morris Colonials | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…31eabacked Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 170$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…129ebacked Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 125$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Green Bay Phoenix | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Green Bay Phoenix | 49c | 65.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Robert Morris Colonials | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…a7b5backed Robert Morris Colonials | 65c | 50.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…3ce9backed Robert Morris Colonials | 52c | 49.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Green Bay Phoenix | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd500…a932backed Green Bay Phoenix | 52c | 48.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27f…b2e1backed Robert Morris Colonials | 50c | 47.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c44…2007backed Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 46.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…6675backed Robert Morris Colonials | 52c | 45.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4475…4e3fbacked Green Bay Phoenix | 52c | 44.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…ba76backed Robert Morris Colonials | 52c | 44.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…7c16backed Robert Morris Colonials | 50c | 44.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa1…f7d6backed Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 43.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1544…7671backed Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 41.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…9496backed Robert Morris Colonials | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c6…606fbacked Green Bay Phoenix | 52c | 39.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cef…ba93backed Green Bay Phoenix | 52c | 38.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d7…12bebacked Green Bay Phoenix | 52c | 38.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb9…7aedbacked Robert Morris Colonials | 50c | 37.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbce…2018backed Robert Morris Colonials | 50c | 37.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dd…dd16backed Green Bay Phoenix | 52c | 36.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x411e…0306backed Robert Morris Colonials | 50c | 35.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…2578backed Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 35.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Robert Morris Colonials | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb258…51a9backed Green Bay Phoenix | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9917…569cbacked Green Bay Phoenix | 44c | 34.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 62cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b91…82edbacked Robert Morris Colonials | 56c | 34.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x869f…f8dbbacked Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 32.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0017…fb86backed Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 31.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e9…d644backed Green Bay Phoenix | 52c | 30.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226f…3c94backed Green Bay Phoenix | 52c | 30.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…7f10backed Robert Morris Colonials | 52c | 30.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b9…2889backed Green Bay Phoenix | 52c | 29.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d9…4442backed Robert Morris Colonials | 52c | 29.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb951…5306backed Robert Morris Colonials | 52c | 27.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x593a…cf3bbacked Robert Morris Colonials | 50c | 26.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4957…0c69backed Robert Morris Colonials | 52c | 26.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…2ce2backed Green Bay Phoenix | 47c | 25.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…f46abacked Robert Morris Colonials | 53c | 25.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdce4…6326backed Green Bay Phoenix | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0a…5e16backed Robert Morris Colonials | 50c | 23.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…715dbacked Robert Morris Colonials | 50c | 23.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Robert Morris Colonials | 50c | 20.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Robert Morris Colonials | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…385bbacked Green Bay Phoenix | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.