MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01c581178b91a21804732168c0b88c8fc9063727a1a01ed0e8cdbaa1c8b55392
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 24c | 2,912$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.74 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 2,438$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.28 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db6…d7afbacked Los Angeles Angels | 72c | 2,221$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Los Angeles Angels | 30c | 510.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.3 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked San Diego Padres | 70c | 490.99$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.3 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 454.44$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.8 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed San Diego Padres | 78c | 446.83$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.58 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed San Diego Padres | 25c | 445$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.75 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed4e…916fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 75c | 394.73$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.47 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…c9ecbacked San Diego Padres | 80c | 308.86$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Los Angeles Angels | 26c | 305.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 304.34$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.46 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 296.63$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.7 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Los Angeles Angels | 29c | 266.77$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9e…3a2fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 30c | 227.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 165.24$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 118.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 116.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.17 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 113.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…7c7bbacked San Diego Padres | 70c | 107.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 106.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed San Diego Padres | 71c | 106.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 231 | 66.7%154 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 48c | 101.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 93.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 85.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Los Angeles Angels | 24c | 84.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Angels | 30c | 77.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 69.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 47c | 59.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Los Angeles Angels | 67c | 58.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Los Angeles Angels | 47c | 54.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 53.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Los Angeles Angels | 71c | 51.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Diego Padres | 30c | 41.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…a863backed San Diego Padres | 31c | 41.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed San Diego Padres | 26c | 38.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…9aa2backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles AngelsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.