MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x731c7ce8c89c9014f689c0c8159b6aafae0d654afeb2827d4617cf021118e71f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99a7…fc82backed Over | 46c | 24,082$11,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,154.49 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 54c | 10,289$5,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,733.14 | 1,681 | 50.1%842 W · 839 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 53c | 7,500$3,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,525 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50f…3ad3backed Under | 54c | 3,070$1,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.14 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…312ebacked Over | 49c | 1,977$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.92 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 18c | 1,949$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.56 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 51c | 1,305$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.25 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95c…7913backed Over | 49c | 1,013$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…a64abacked Under | 54c | 990.41$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.59 | 323 | 50.5%163 W · 160 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 66c | 873.08$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.85 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 744.24$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.4 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…9e5ebacked Under | 54c | 676.79$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.32 | 467 | 49.5%231 W · 236 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked Under | 54c | 615.53$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.14 | 286 | 47.2%135 W · 151 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 70c | 577.4$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.85 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Under | 54c | 486.2$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.65 | 262 | 55.7%146 W · 116 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 478.57$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.5 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Over | 48c | 323.08$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.08 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 52c | 280.15$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.47 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 53c | 233.21$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.41 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked Under | 54c | 216.85$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 406 | 48.5%197 W · 209 L | -13.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 210.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed Under | 54c | 155.58$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.57 | 452 | 51.3%232 W · 220 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 18c | 136$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Under | 54c | 124.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 205 | 51.7%106 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd82…4068backed Under | 54c | 124.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Under | 54c | 124.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 770 | 52.1%401 W · 369 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under | 54c | 124.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 1,306 | 50.7%662 W · 644 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Under | 54c | 94.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 293 | 52.9%155 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Under | 54c | 94.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cca…3c3bbacked Under | 54c | 94.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6472…81e3backed Under | 54c | 63.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…c7f7backed Over | 51c | 52.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 53c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 49.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 53c | 46.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 53c | 44.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 53c | 41.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…041cbacked Over | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 76c | 38.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Under | 55c | 34.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Under | 54c | 33.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 457 | 49%224 W · 233 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Under | 54c | 33.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 612 | 50.5%309 W · 303 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba8…5d91backed Under | 54c | 33.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 226 | 50.4%114 W · 112 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8c…42d1backed Over | 48c | 29.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Under | 52c | 25.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 53c | 20.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles AngelsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.