Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0207e18b6c6d1ba18f570acb682c5e38793c772e457457db1fc51e447ffa714b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,000 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 28c | 799.96$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.91 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 10c | 643.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 8c | 547.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 534.74$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.77 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 502$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed No | 78c | 445.49$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 444.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 315.35$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed Yes | 4c | 251.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 13c | 225.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 23c | 207.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 200.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 10c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 16c | 128.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 12c | 125.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…b054backed Yes | 30c | 122.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…1422backed No | 79c | 111.52$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 13c | 109.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 104.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 99.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 94.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 88.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 25c | 79.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 76.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 21c | 67.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 80c | 60.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 25c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 51.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe580…5b04backed No | 66c | 47.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 68c | 43.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 75c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…f095backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963f…4487backed Yes | 29c | 34.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 33.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5390…1649backed No | 69c | 30.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 77c | 29.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 69c | 29.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 29.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 68c | 29.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 61c | 27.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 25.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 77c | 24.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 22.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ec…6373backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 73c | 20.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 66c | 18.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb316…e3eebacked No | 80c | 18.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…6418backed No | 77c | 16.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2f…0a46backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 75c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.