Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75a50a89de969245bbb121ea57d0f2ebf1ef6228e73128a1321bf61f67bf92f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,318 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0510…a509backed Yes | 24c | 3,941$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…19f3backed No | 76c | 1,319$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x757d…7bd4backed No | 76c | 1,313$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc963…26b9backed No | 76c | 1,310$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 41c | 1,256$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.01 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed No | 54c | 656.75$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 42c | 556.32$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.53 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 498.38$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 17c | 283.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 260.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…b054backed No | 60c | 250.92$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 7c | 239.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 57c | 222$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.16 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 213.76$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 13c | 210.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 32c | 199.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 180.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 7c | 165.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 29c | 160.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 40c | 143.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 130.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 36c | 110.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…abaebacked No | 78c | 105$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 49c | 103.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 101$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 14c | 96.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed Yes | 23c | 88.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 25c | 87.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5772…b03cbacked No | 55c | 86.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 13c | 82.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 29c | 74.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 55c | 73.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 68.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 58c | 64.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 61.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 58c | 61.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 37c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 56c | 58.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 45c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 20c | 53.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf6…87f6backed Yes | 46c | 47.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 63c | 46.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 24c | 46.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…32b5backed Yes | 48c | 45.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 44.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 46c | 43.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…7404backed Yes | 42c | 42.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 60c | 42.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed No | 76c | 40.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes | 49c | 40.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed No | 56c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 64c | 38.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 37.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf1…71febacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1772…1ba2backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 44c | 34.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 43c | 33.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 60c | 31.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398f…5ababacked No | 67c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 54c | 30.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 69c | 28.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 27.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d04…b707backed Yes | 42c | 26.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked Yes | 45c | 22.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 69c | 21.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 64c | 19.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd077…46c0backed No | 60c | 18.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 57c | 17.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.