TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,053

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,053 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6580…6fa8backed Yes65c2,770$1,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.117628.9%22 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4da2…41e5backed No24c1,702$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.379929.3%29 W · 70 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x12c3…b054backed No47c1,184$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.25742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+46.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No34c955.75$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes10c809.28$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.191,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes51c502$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.796,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No79c439.94$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34919060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No15c401.9$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes25c370.44$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.736119.7%12 W · 49 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes18c356.43$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.638220.7%17 W · 65 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes8c336.68$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.751,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes7c333.93$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.7217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No32c315.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7532548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes6c258.08$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.17,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8454…c8e4backed Yes65c252$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.826654.5%36 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No21c250.14$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6736819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes50c225.89$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.41,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes12c219.78$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.0556721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes8c216.21$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.92347.3%17 W · 217 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes29c212.37$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.371,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No55c211.99$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.541,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes49c204.27$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.021,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No23c200.22$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.477,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3f8f…3631backed No39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.121145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d4…0a1bbacked Yes61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.011233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No47c190.66$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0158422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No76c187.71$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.843,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a76…5584backed Yes33c171.82$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1155058%29 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes54c169.6$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.854143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes30c168.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.5359818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No40c165.79$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes33c152.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.142846.4%13 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+104.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No75c150$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.4714442.4%61 W · 83 L-11.7wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-35.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5327…86cbbacked Yes72c148.36$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.542673.1%19 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick73cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No74c141.56$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.651,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes65c141.17$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8757659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86ce…307dbacked Yes80c137.74$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.74862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes23c126.7$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.8732818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes35c121.3$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.962,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes37c121.12$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.6824932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No73c118.1$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.213,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes50c114.25$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8677428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed Yes67c112.26$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2623673.3%173 W · 63 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c110$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.252,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked No63c108.15$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3960851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes62c105.53$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9118255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes29c105.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.8726236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes40c103.47$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.331,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c101$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.39,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43f2…e722backed Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.82245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.886226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68b…385fbacked No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+44%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe21…f884backed Yes13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873026.7%8 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8682…24e5backed Yes68c90.5$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.192759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed No35c88.07$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.514131.7%13 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafaf…572dbacked Yes64c77.31$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.033946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed Yes77c76.48$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2316944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes53c66.13$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.879724.7%24 W · 73 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbf…cf4bbacked Yes16c66.01$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4710058%58 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…63b0backed Yes66c65.9$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.32360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x574c…8a65backed Yes47c63.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.832924.1%7 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes63c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0240525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3334…b05ebacked Yes50c59.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.751030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes22c59$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.991,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb397…283abacked Yes23c57$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.977233.3%24 W · 48 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No31c54.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.811,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x192a…b0a6backed No45c53.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3420150.7%102 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes32c53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.861,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes29c52.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2232044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c51.05$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.875,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No35c50.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.694,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes60c50.05$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0540935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1632444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No51c49.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2757232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xb1a2…f366backed Yes58c49.52$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.617321.9%16 W · 57 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No65c46.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3927771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbeb…32b5backed Yes25c45.24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.043036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes59c38.73$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.91,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cab…7489backed No65c38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8310371.8%74 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes56c36.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0138547.5%183 W · 202 L+16.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd4c…8bebbacked No47c36.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710780.4%86 W · 21 L+21.9wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+37.4%equal weight68+0.17 edge/pick
0x1d14…abaebacked Yes80c36$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.33060%18 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes47c35.83$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8330333%100 W · 203 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeccd…d100backed No35c33.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.813122.1%29 W · 102 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd077…46c0backed No40c32.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.121040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76fe…0e95backed Yes80c32.54$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.542100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+197.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No71c31.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.924,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df8…4005backed No47c30.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3110841.7%45 W · 63 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x913a…a3e7backed Yes75c30.5$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.593767.6%25 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+32.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x32ff…04d0backed Yes68c29.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11a4…bba6backed No43c27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4812223%28 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeb9…58bebacked Yes57c26.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.581464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfb8…fb8bbacked Yes75c26.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.626100%6 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b55…9a8abacked Yes66c22.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.83450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ab…c998backed Yes64c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.936137.7%23 W · 38 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No54c19.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4499961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes78c19.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.183759.5%22 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes67c17.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9817644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No74c16.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1212365%80 W · 43 L+0.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.