Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89cdb294c15306d10cc7a108230d3f43fb0e45a1a771dc5bfd215f0f64742a9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,053 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 65c | 2,770$1,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.11 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed No | 24c | 1,702$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.37 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…b054backed No | 47c | 1,184$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 955.75$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 10c | 809.28$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.19 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 502$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 79c | 439.94$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 15c | 401.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 25c | 370.44$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.73 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 18c | 356.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.63 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 8c | 336.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.75 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 333.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 32c | 315.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 258.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 65c | 252$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 21c | 250.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 50c | 225.89$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 12c | 219.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.05 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 8c | 216.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.9 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 29c | 212.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.37 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 211.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.54 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 49c | 204.27$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.02 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 200.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8f…3631backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…0a1bbacked Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 47c | 190.66$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 187.71$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed Yes | 33c | 171.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 54c | 169.6$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 30c | 168.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.53 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 165.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 33c | 152.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 75c | 150$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.47 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…86cbbacked Yes | 72c | 148.36$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 74c | 141.56$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 65c | 141.17$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ce…307dbacked Yes | 80c | 137.74$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 23c | 126.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.87 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 35c | 121.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 37c | 121.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 118.1$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 50c | 114.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 67c | 112.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 63c | 108.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 62c | 105.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 29c | 105.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.87 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 40c | 103.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 101$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…e722backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68b…385fbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…24e5backed Yes | 68c | 90.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 35c | 88.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 64c | 77.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 77c | 76.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 53c | 66.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked Yes | 16c | 66.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…63b0backed Yes | 66c | 65.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…8a65backed Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…b05ebacked Yes | 50c | 59.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 23c | 57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 31c | 54.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 45c | 53.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 29c | 52.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 51.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 50.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 60c | 50.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…f366backed Yes | 58c | 49.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 65c | 46.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…32b5backed Yes | 25c | 45.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 59c | 38.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 65c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 56c | 36.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked No | 47c | 36.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…abaebacked Yes | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 47c | 35.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 35c | 33.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd077…46c0backed No | 40c | 32.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fe…0e95backed Yes | 80c | 32.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 31.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 47c | 30.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 75c | 30.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32ff…04d0backed Yes | 68c | 29.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 43c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…58bebacked Yes | 57c | 26.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…fb8bbacked Yes | 75c | 26.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…9a8abacked Yes | 66c | 22.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 54c | 19.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes | 78c | 19.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 67c | 17.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 74c | 16.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.