Asian League · resolved market
Will Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Fagiano Okayama end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02162518a6fbf96d7a7f154c9820d5654c18f4bc61b503c8828c4f72bd91ff06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 77c | 11,031$8,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,536.55 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Yes | 19c | 7,426$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 17c | 2,500$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 30c | 1,167$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 285 | 32.3%92 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24f…d0a8backed Yes | 30c | 1,090$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 74c | 966.88$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.39 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 26c | 397.14$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 26c | 267.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 233.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…c764backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 25c | 164.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 396 | 55.8%221 W · 175 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 114.41$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 79c | 112.57$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 75c | 107.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 79.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1e…53b8backed Yes | 29c | 69.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 75c | 64.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 75c | 64.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Yes | 26c | 53.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Yes | 26c | 46.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Yes | 26c | 44.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…bb08backed No | 72c | 44.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 74c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +114.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Yes | 30c | 33.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…e599backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 75c | 26.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 75c | 19.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked No | 72c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Fagiano Okayama end in a draw?this page
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-06-06?Yes won
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-06-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.