WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x021b150d297953a5f1b8cfaef01afbb9eef3126a4d1367857937b65b1f26946b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phoenix Mercuryof Indiana Fever, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 3,116$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.13 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 2,863$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,465.89 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 67c | 466.88$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.66 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 367.28$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.28 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 266.38$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.52 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever | 36c | 248.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Indiana Fever | 46c | 238.62$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.77 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Indiana Fever | 34c | 154.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Indiana Fever | 45c | 153.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 145.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 133.87$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 123$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 252 | 46%116 W · 136 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 105.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 66.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a01…1a3cbacked Indiana Fever | 40c | 54.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Indiana Fever | 38c | 51.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 38.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Indiana Fever | 32c | 34.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana FeverPhoenix Mercury won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5Over won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5Over won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.