WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f7f1c5e7fba407df1b65433d21275f0fcf6385502af8f571cecfa3c9f0e2a67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phoenix Mercuryof Indiana Fever, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 4,072$2,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,899.31 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 2,440$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.37 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever | 47c | 1,616$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.68 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00ed…0a9fbacked Indiana Fever | 52c | 676.92$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Indiana Fever | 52c | 470$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.4 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 355.87$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.49 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Indiana Fever | 45c | 312.2$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.34 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 301.8$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.9 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0508…6035backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…dd71backed Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadbc…8af3backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 280$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 233.09$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.55 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Indiana Fever | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 190.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.57 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 179.34$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.29 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 179$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 60c | 140.43$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Indiana Fever | 47c | 135.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Indiana Fever | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc42…b12cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 35.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Indiana Fever | 46c | 23.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 22.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana FeverPhoenix Mercury won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5Over won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5Over won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.