College Football · resolved market
Michigan State vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x021e759d0b24f9450d8dd0b94f9a53c0c4288db6b9e7b7152d0fa5a63a53d2a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nebraska Cornhuskersof Michigan State, Nebraska Cornhuskers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Michigan State | 12c | 6,906$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.72 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Michigan State | 11c | 3,353$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.91 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Michigan State | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Michigan State | 19c | 1,948$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.04 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Michigan State | 26c | 1,786$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.87 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Michigan State | 54c | 1,425$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.36 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Michigan State | 20c | 1,390$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.56 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 80c | 1,386$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.15 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Michigan State | 45c | 1,337$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.81 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Nebraska Cornhuskers | 80c | 1,228$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.6 | 173 | 61.3%106 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a2…ea25backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 80c | 882.28$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Michigan State | 17c | 840$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.55 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 80c | 783.81$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.76 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan State | 12c | 751$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 51c | 627.97$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.85 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Michigan State | 53c | 559.47$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.94 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Michigan State | 25c | 395$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers | 79c | 338.1$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Michigan State | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1a…bf3abacked Nebraska Cornhuskers | 80c | 245.15$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Michigan State | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Michigan State | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Nebraska Cornhuskers | 53c | 110.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e3…b3a4backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 41c | 101.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f7…db24backed Michigan State | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Michigan State | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef89…73e2backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…0d9abacked Nebraska Cornhuskers | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Michigan State | 33c | 69.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…d466backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Nebraska Cornhuskers | 78c | 32.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…f35bbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb0…e845backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac2…3ba5backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Michigan State vs. Nebraska Cornhuskersthis page
- Michigan State vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers: O/U 48.5Over won
- O/U 51.5Over won
- Spread: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-10.5)Nebraska Cornhuskers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.