MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0233bf4e070bdc862f6a37e247687adbed729730c39ce6e1f98c02c19709bb7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 4,777$2,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,867.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 4,484$1,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,677.06 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 58c | 2,498$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.18 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Over | 43c | 2,280$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.6 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 43c | 1,923$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.78 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 41c | 500$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.63 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 41c | 371.97$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.74 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 57c | 210.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…e902backed Over | 54c | 194.74$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.74 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 59c | 191.53$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 58c | 185$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.85 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 42c | 166.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 43c | 166.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.63 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 51c | 158$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.32 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 103.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 103.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 103.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 30c | 81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 37c | 80.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Under | 66c | 74.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Over | 44c | 72.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 63c | 71.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 58c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 70c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 27 | 92.6%25 W · 2 L | +9.8wins | +0.36per pick | 56cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 50c | 56.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d5…138ebacked Under | 59c | 50.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Over | 42c | 43.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 43c | 41.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 41c | 37.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5cdebacked Under | 59c | 28.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 39c | 26.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…89b1backed Under | 58c | 25.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 25.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 56c | 21.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Over | 67c | 15.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-6.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.