MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc88b36dd4f1ccd9476cee7cc7910d06d4b9c9679fe4e3c290e3916a420131ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Over | 50c | 16,955$8,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,487.17 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 8,858$4,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,375.8 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 50c | 6,878$3,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,435.46 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 2,918$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.01 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 61c | 2,718$1,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.83 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 40c | 2,295$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.31 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…e9a1backed Over | 52c | 2,115$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.38 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…7a19backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 1,957$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 1,091$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.69 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 51c | 999.97$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.98 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 50c | 984$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 828.28$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 715.82$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.91 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 50c | 680$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.72 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Under | 51c | 490$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Under | 50c | 457.12$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.56 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 55c | 440$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 49c | 424.47$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.48 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 69c | 362.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 49c | 330$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 34c | 315.28$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.27 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 34c | 274.03$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.28 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…807ebacked Under | 50c | 233.38$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 10c | 226.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 50c | 175$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…a6d3backed Under | 15c | 168.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…e952backed Under | 49c | 151.53$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…91aabacked Over | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 49c | 120.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 50c | 112$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 55c | 81.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 49c | 70.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 40c | 69.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 47c | 63.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…1b47backed Under | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 51c | 61.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Over | 49c | 50.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Over | 49c | 50.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 49c | 50.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 51c | 49.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…ba71backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 62c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Under | 61c | 46.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Over | 49c | 45.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Over | 45c | 43.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Over | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…449ebacked Over | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0439…3f80backed Over | 50c | 39.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 32.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 59c | 31.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 34c | 30.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 48c | 30.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Under | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 63c | 29.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 48c | 28.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 59c | 27.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…dc88backed Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 50c | 25.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…2096backed Over | 74c | 23.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 49c | 23.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…cae4backed Under | 50c | 21.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Over | 76c | 18.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-6.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.