MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fbfe3ffa988ba81eeb7a9778f66be7849fe6c77cc87447bfd926abd7aeef93d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 3,200$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.13 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 2,047$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.24 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 1,900$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 1,450$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.65 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 1,189$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.49 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 1,115$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.55 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 813.95$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.95 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 509.79$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.68 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…07b6backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 481.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.6 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 376.19$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.19 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 371.97$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 272.73$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.73 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 268.48$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.35 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 263.32$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.22 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 209.52$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.52 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 190.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.48 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 184.96$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 180$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 180$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 171.94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1f…ab66backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 168.69$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.84 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 166.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 163.79$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 161.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Angels | 27c | 141$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 119 | 48.7%58 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 100.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c59…ad51backed Los Angeles Angels | 37c | 95.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 215 | 45.6%98 W · 117 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 94.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 88.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 58.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 48c | 55.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 38.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 33.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 32.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 24.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 24.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 23.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 23.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-6.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.