MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02421cf2fce2cc4802ae6d6f1c6b1e3f9bec878f53d0701198a6d99a0a2e9778
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Houston Astros | 67c | 4,389$2,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.36 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 33c | 2,202$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Colorado Rockies | 43c | 2,026$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.16 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 690.86$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.27 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Houston Astros | 51c | 388.24$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.24 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Colorado Rockies | 52c | 210.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.72 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Houston Astros | 47c | 183.73$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.37 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Houston Astros | 47c | 98.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Colorado Rockies | 33c | 97.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 91.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Colorado Rockies | 55c | 70.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Houston Astros | 54c | 62.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Houston Astros | 68c | 58.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…02d6backed Colorado Rockies | 33c | 56.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 55.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Houston Astros | 47c | 55.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Houston Astros | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Houston Astros | 51c | 45.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Colorado Rockies | 29c | 41.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Houston Astros | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 32.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Houston Astros | 47c | 27.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.