Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Tondela win on 2025-12-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02587444469030622c97ac903d3549ab1eaf0e0ad134b758d5ef7501ce6fe8d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked No | 58c | 10,000$5,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,200 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 30c | 9,063$2,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,336.18 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 62c | 8,689$5,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,380.17 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 376 | 41.5%156 W · 220 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes | 42c | 3,175$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.46 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 473 | 25.4%120 W · 353 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 66c | 1,041$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.22 | 192 | 41.7%80 W · 112 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd733…b175backed Yes | 43c | 999.99$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 44c | 977.25$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.05 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 34c | 900$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.45 | 447 | 68%304 W · 143 L | +52.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 56c | 765.05$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.62 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 65c | 700$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked No | 56c | 477.03$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.89 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 52c | 409.55$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.04 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 46c | 327$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.42 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 52c | 299.13$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.63 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 54c | 252.25$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.24 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 54c | 225$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.75 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 34c | 151.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca66…2305backed Yes | 32c | 141.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 47c | 94.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd781…92a0backed Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d19fbacked Yes | 43c | 85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 28c | 83.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 57c | 71.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 43c | 70.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a2…1096backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 63c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 42c | 60.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d99…6a92backed Yes | 22c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 72c | 43.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…9782backed No | 58c | 28.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…8277backed Yes | 45c | 26.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 43c | 23.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd89c…046dbacked No | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Tondela win on 2025-12-21?this page
- Will CD Tondela vs. Casa Pia AC end in a draw?No won
- Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-12-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.