Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-12-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x131716b5f68209b6244a0246763a158fa3be1ae33488efd0d65ca67a6ad375e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae94…0c03backed Yes | 26c | 9,363$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,962.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +163.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 78c | 4,489$3,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.89 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 48c | 3,420$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.29 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 71c | 2,894$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054.4 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 2,815$2,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132.3 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 26c | 490.59$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.59 | 366 | 47.3%173 W · 193 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 27c | 419$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.87 | 297 | 42.8%127 W · 170 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2e…bfa2backed Yes | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b9…27d0backed Yes | 80c | 325.07$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…3ab4backed Yes | 26c | 324.65$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.24 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 271.65$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.58 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 79c | 254.57$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.99 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 80c | 231.09$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 192 | 41.7%80 W · 112 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…6365backed Yes | 80c | 226.11$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Yes | 27c | 196.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 90 | 33.3%30 W · 60 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 124$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.96 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd549…296dbacked Yes | 25c | 102.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Yes | 26c | 98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 327 | 39.4%129 W · 198 L | -22.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 54c | 81.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d3…f810backed No | 75c | 78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 25c | 78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 294 | 25.9%76 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed No | 74c | 74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 169 | 53.8%91 W · 78 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 215 | 40.5%87 W · 128 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 75c | 52.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -8.0wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 24c | 50.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 71 | 15.5%11 W · 60 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…27e7backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…646ebacked Yes | 26c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 72c | 39.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed No | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfc…83c6backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed Yes | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 74c | 19.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 72c | 17.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb570…25dbbacked No | 74c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd89c…046dbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Casa Pia AC win on 2025-12-21?this page
- Will CD Tondela vs. Casa Pia AC end in a draw?No won
- Will CD Tondela win on 2025-12-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.