TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-12-20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$521,205
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$519,586

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $521,205 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 492 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe90b…5da2backed No63c35,776$22,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,237.199455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes37c35,000$12,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,95011445.6%52 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x021a…56cbbacked Yes30c22,320$6,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,739.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-72.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No68c14,866$10,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,684.742,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No64c8,373$5,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,023.453,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No71c5,767$4,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.9775142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb52b…b156backed Yes39c5,000$1,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,948.91154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387d…bd5fbacked Yes40c4,914$1,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,965.620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e6…c89ebacked Yes40c4,515$1,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80630%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5601…61c1backed No60c3,605$2,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,442366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87cf…351ebacked No60c3,405$2,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5434…2ec4backed Yes40c3,149$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Yes38c3,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14011644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe79…1903backed No60c2,959$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x798f…e272backed Yes40c2,917$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.8450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes40c2,902$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.931,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de1…3714backed No60c2,684$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No61c2,626$1,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.6151136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8421…7a9dbacked No60c2,608$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes41c2,598$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.189854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No64c2,569$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.5378248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33df…9a83backed No60c2,560$1,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0243100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97b2…029fbacked Yes40c2,550$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Yes38c2,406$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.351729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40f9…7238backed No60c2,369$1,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9c…ca5bbacked No60c2,347$1,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd6…21c1backed No60c2,344$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes41c2,273$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.7814756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7856…558abacked Yes40c2,247$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d8…bfbcbacked Yes40c2,247$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcec7…83fbbacked Yes40c2,187$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5e5…d862backed No60c2,137$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3f0…61b1backed No60c2,076$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59ca…185fbacked No60c1,996$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c8c…4389backed No60c1,985$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08e9…16c2backed Yes40c1,983$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc60…02fcbacked No60c1,980$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x579e…48f4backed Yes40c1,973$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4caf…46cdbacked No60c1,940$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb49…75d2backed No60c1,935$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7743100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe22a…bc07backed Yes40c1,878$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7746…25aabacked Yes40c1,859$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x115e…ec58backed Yes40c1,851$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.430%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x757c…e62cbacked Yes40c1,838$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x484b…2e93backed No60c1,810$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…37fbbacked Yes40c1,799$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a42…4153backed No60c1,742$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick61cpaid+65.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Yes39c1,705$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.942326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a67…ed0cbacked No60c1,685$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6743100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f87…3f3bbacked No60c1,664$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick56cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3bd…1d7bbacked Yes40c1,649$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4992…8a2abacked No60c1,648$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x498d…7984backed Yes40c1,641$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.4450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdab9…d322backed Yes40c1,621$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58df…b3aabacked Yes40c1,606$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x192d…ebb8backed No60c1,604$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e20…0bd8backed Yes40c1,551$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Yes39c1,538$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.8214254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c0f…c804backed Yes40c1,538$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb56d…bb1dbacked Yes40c1,514$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.6450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c0…2efabacked Yes40c1,512$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.8425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe665…a932backed Yes40c1,507$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82a0…1446backed No60c1,506$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.43100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x981d…c4d6backed No60c1,493$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.24100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick58cpaid+75.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c2f…886dbacked Yes40c1,485$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa17b…2dd9backed Yes40c1,483$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0d0…6195backed No60c1,473$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes35c1,471$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51527726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…288cbacked Yes40c1,442$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.8450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91c4…3f9bbacked Yes40c1,430$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0409…a5d6backed Yes40c1,428$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b2b…493fbacked No60c1,422$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6085…4880backed Yes40c1,403$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56b6…b196backed Yes40c1,402$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b06…c998backed Yes40c1,402$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bf1…5205backed No60c1,388$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1985…ef00backed No60c1,388$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4eee…77c3backed No60c1,385$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf9e…1fdfbacked No60c1,367$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae13…2dfebacked No60c1,354$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.6450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a9b…f4edbacked Yes38c1,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfda3…dab2backed Yes40c1,303$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80cb…c746backed No60c1,297$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd64f…0be7backed Yes40c1,296$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf1b…79debacked Yes40c1,294$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a4…da99backed No60c1,288$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.24100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc355…b98fbacked No60c1,280$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaedc…ec9ebacked No60c1,270$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe982…7329backed Yes40c1,253$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b64…139dbacked Yes40c1,252$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+33.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57c2…db1bbacked No60c1,238$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ed…5563backed No60c1,237$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2540…e2a6backed No60c1,230$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Yes41c1,220$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.23953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d56…9dc6backed Yes40c1,220$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb291…6e13backed Yes40c1,217$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.840%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x16c0…17babacked Yes40c1,217$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf00b…71d2backed No60c1,206$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe12f…194abacked Yes40c1,198$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.