TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2025-12-20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$90,163
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,031

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,163 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes35c26,546$9,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,175.1215134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed No65c8,414$5,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,469.8720%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Yes35c8,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2002458.3%14 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+21.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No73c7,361$5,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,404.4975142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No48c7,276$3,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,507.182,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed No67c4,538$3,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,040.551656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No66c4,451$2,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,927.613,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked No65c4,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6008752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38fe…a923backed No78c3,849$2,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,989.982759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes33c2,369$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,593.2114756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed No65c1,782$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.017447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes77c1,538$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.9822669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Yes33c1,533$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.1614846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes34c1,469$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.5333945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes40c1,450$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.7121041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa99f…9c1ebacked No6c1,400$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No66c1,232$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.6951136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No23c1,170$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.4423842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba8…ab96backed No65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No67c1,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67034144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed No7c940.62$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.44244.2%1 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes33c909.98$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.695635.7%20 W · 36 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes31c890$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.2822332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed No67c835.29$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56210057%57 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No29c814$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.146347.6%30 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Yes48c813$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.3610463.5%66 W · 38 L+9.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x49e2…018dbacked No66c608.75$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.781338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed Yes34c588.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.433834.2%13 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked No67c500$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3372665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe987…165cbacked Yes30c498.17$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed No64c477$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.9619544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed No65c444$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.614364.3%92 W · 51 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+24.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcb5b…eca0backed Yes24c416.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.672548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed No25c400$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982025%5 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No65c382.14$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.3923046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes21c344$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.7649143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2422…28febacked Yes35c303.94$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.942138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes34c300$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19811036.4%40 W · 70 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c8d…673abacked No66c300$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1981225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-56.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed No66c300$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1989746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed No43c296.41$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.213332.3%43 W · 90 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No51c281.97$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.4716542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes35c271.43$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.4334547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes19c261.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.993450%17 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23ff…94f5backed Yes35c237.6$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+45.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed No80c222.13$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.713762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Yes20c210$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16816045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No66c200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13216045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77e1…5924backed No8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes34c200$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1324141.5%17 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked No64c171.66$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.862045%9 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe351…e48dbacked No66c170.59$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.744938.8%19 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1670…2277backed Yes34c158.82$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.822138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No56c149.76$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.968946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes35c137.14$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.143647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes55c123$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.358551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679621.9%21 W · 75 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6619446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cb1…984ebacked Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16f1…139ebacked Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657100%7 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+88%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x11f0…890dbacked No67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679062.2%56 W · 34 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b4d…812ebacked Yes17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed No67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.55250%26 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03b9…7e74backed Yes16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc71f…bd62backed No69c97$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.934942.9%21 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes21c95.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.246526.2%17 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed No66c90$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.413256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes28c88.39$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3920436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes33c84.09$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.347152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46e5…4c5ebacked No70c84$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a0e…9036backed Yes31c80.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.651323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x205b…d66abacked Yes65c80$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.932560%15 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes34c73.53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.535352.8%28 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84b5…a762backed Yes34c73.53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.53540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84e5…2303backed Yes31c64.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.523036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5992…40bfbacked Yes33c60.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.61933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.66460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.612259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.68261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.65558.2%32 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.65459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.65459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.611360.2%68 W · 45 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.66162.3%38 W · 23 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.65757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.612757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.66657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.612657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.612356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.611661.2%71 W · 45 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.613254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.625659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.611063.6%70 W · 40 L+13.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.69861.2%60 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.69159.3%54 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e20…ac93backed Yes34c59.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.231346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed No68c56.7$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5511563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354161%25 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed No67c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa090…f998backed No67c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.