Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41117f72ced4316b6ed9035276d704ba620dd4ba0cd7f8753c5fd9c73904e3e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 54c | 10,968$5,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,873.61 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 41c | 5,042$2,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,951.71 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.98 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 43c | 1,972$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.12 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 53c | 1,654$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.98 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Yes | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.82 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 59c | 1,298$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.17 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 58c | 1,046$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.21 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 62c | 871.99$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.02 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 66c | 606.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.06 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…b788backed Yes | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…cad3backed No | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b3…6bfcbacked No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 79c | 296.9$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.82 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 72c | 255.3$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.48 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 46c | 222.38$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.03 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…d0ccbacked No | 72c | 169.44$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c9…2e68backed Yes | 59c | 168.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x868e…f152backed No | 72c | 168.06$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3a…e5d4backed No | 72c | 166.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed No | 57c | 165.88$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c7…e112backed No | 72c | 165.28$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e6…1339backed No | 72c | 158.33$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fd…8b78backed No | 72c | 156.94$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…0857backed No | 72c | 152.78$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…6628backed No | 72c | 141.67$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6310…0d90backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 28c | 122.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…814cbacked No | 72c | 112.5$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4988…5772backed No | 72c | 109.72$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d98…2b1abacked No | 72c | 106.94$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd375…e1ecbacked No | 72c | 106.94$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a17…282bbacked No | 72c | 105.56$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89eb…ad8dbacked No | 72c | 104.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4681…a324backed No | 72c | 102.78$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…3d44backed No | 72c | 101.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…1340backed No | 71c | 100.01$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d32…fe50backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 53c | 96.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked No | 28c | 90.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…62eabacked No | 72c | 87.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked No | 72c | 87.08$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…9e20backed No | 72c | 86.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c45…ef75backed No | 71c | 81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0867…5005backed No | 72c | 77.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 49c | 58.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 71c | 57.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked No | 57c | 54.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked No | 46c | 52.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 26c | 50.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f3…dcdebacked Yes | 30c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 71c | 40.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 70c | 38.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da6…c0ebbacked Yes | 30c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c9…5010backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e2c2backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 73cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23ea…fbf2backed Yes | 74c | 21.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-12-20?No won
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2025-12-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.