College Football · resolved market
Spread: Ball State (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x027e72e4dc192828118d79fbdee69151ac3dc7f0d06edb814783ac29dca674e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ball Stateof Ball State, Kent State Golden Flashes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Kent State Golden Flashes | 46c | 6,000$2,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,760 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Ball State | 52c | 5,511$2,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,645.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 48c | 5,035$2,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,416.62 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Ball State | 54c | 3,601$1,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656.5 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Ball State | 54c | 3,141$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.06 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e9…dee1backed Ball State | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kent State Golden Flashes | 45c | 1,760$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.87 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Ball State | 53c | 601.1$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.52 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Kent State Golden Flashes | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 47c | 234.04$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…9305backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Ball State | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Kent State Golden Flashes | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Ball State | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked Kent State Golden Flashes | 48c | 27.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ball State (-2.5)this page
- Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Ball StateBall State won
- Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Ball State: O/U 47.5Under won
- O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Ball State (-1.5)Ball State won
- Spread: Ball State (-3.5)Ball State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.