MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x028a59fa2e217c9f52438aaece4834f7876bc3eeafb5167a7e6814fe1ed8631d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Houston Astros, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Houston Astros | 45c | 15,282$6,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,804.28 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 2,976$1,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.07 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +7.7wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Houston Astros | 62c | 2,500$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 1,772$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.71 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 1,478$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.47 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Houston Astros | 54c | 856.05$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.06 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked San Francisco Giants | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked San Francisco Giants | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Houston Astros | 37c | 250$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Houston Astros | 60c | 229.73$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.84 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 105$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Houston Astros | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 66.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 52.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked San Francisco Giants | 40c | 52.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Houston Astros | 60c | 52.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.