Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x028ad336c90db512b25ea72397eb11d29070738f3f33b5d2b133293e4544f488
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 926.78$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 20c | 561.03$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 295.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 18c | 271.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 17c | 270.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 21c | 259.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 256.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 16c | 254.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 18c | 222.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 7c | 197.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 22c | 183.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 155.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 17c | 126.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 100.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 17c | 85.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 79.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 17c | 61.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 20c | 61.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 24c | 55.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 79c | 51.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 38.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 75c | 35.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd865…4778backed No | 76c | 35.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 74c | 31.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 17.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.