Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f3a21fac95423731c5245b89fc6225198620b8754c6a9ebf6b80e78938655ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 615.79$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 26c | 395.55$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 12c | 380.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 550 | 25.3%139 W · 411 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 300.39$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 20c | 257.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 470 | 33.6%158 W · 312 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 17c | 205.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 204.74$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 78c | 200.2$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 20c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 12c | 160.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 20c | 154.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes | 33c | 152.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 152.3$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 19c | 140.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 107.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 72c | 104.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 38c | 103.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 27c | 98.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 98.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 76c | 65.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 19c | 62.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 24c | 62.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 32c | 62.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 876 | 47.9%420 W · 456 L | +40.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 23c | 48.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 282 | 32.6%92 W · 190 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 34.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 72c | 33.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 725 | 66.2%480 W · 245 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 75c | 24.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 19.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfc…bebfbacked No | 78c | 18.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…a640backed No | 77c | 14.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x963b…273dbacked No | 78c | 12.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 76cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.