Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa02be2ff3e2b5d3f17c4b1b81c7e080cbfac5506f6a5bf7f3f1818264a41edfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 5c | 945.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.42 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 633.81$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 66c | 560.71$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.09 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 18c | 541.75$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.82 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 22c | 470.7$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.85 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 10c | 352.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.18 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 335.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.04 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…10cbbacked Yes | 44c | 299.64$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.85 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 7c | 287.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.35 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 16c | 281.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.27 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 277.02$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 25c | 251.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.64 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 12c | 201.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.39 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 45c | 195.32$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.51 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 186.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.34 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 178.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 176.73$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 13c | 174.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.94 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 13c | 173.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.54 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 10c | 170.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.67 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd715…88bcbacked Yes | 11c | 162.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.43 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 25c | 162.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.51 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9f…5439backed No | 7c | 160.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 159.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.4 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 61c | 155.01$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 8c | 154.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf582…8f16backed Yes | 32c | 152.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 9c | 144.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.28 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 33c | 131.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ec…5633backed Yes | 11c | 121.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 104.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.37 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…aba8backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 16c | 99.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 77c | 99.56$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.35 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…e280backed Yes | 55c | 91.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 74.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9726…1b0dbacked Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 79c | 74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 46c | 59.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 59.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 66c | 53.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked No | 60c | 53.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…0ea8backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 27c | 43.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 36c | 41.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 74c | 40.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…0a1abacked Yes | 78c | 39.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 78c | 38.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 80c | 37.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 75c | 36.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 74c | 33.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 37c | 32.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 78c | 31.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 39c | 29.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 68c | 29.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd865…4778backed No | 75c | 28.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 79c | 24.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…a14cbacked No | 63c | 23.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…337abacked No | 64c | 23.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3361…e18ebacked Yes | 49c | 22.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfc…bebfbacked No | 77c | 18.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9740…2eeebacked Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 66c | 15.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead8…e1e3backed No | 79c | 13.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.