Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x564c596f49698bfbda962071845740eec96a0711478ae3de0983d1629e4fefdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 56c | 636.24$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 11c | 468.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 447.08$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 26c | 394.67$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.39 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 326.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 31c | 311.77$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 275.06$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf582…8f16backed Yes | 44c | 273.52$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Yes | 10c | 262.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…10cbbacked Yes | 55c | 240.28$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.44 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 76c | 217.7$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 23c | 217.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 210.76$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e9…e288backed Yes | 60c | 210.42$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 199.4$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 28c | 195.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 190.15$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 186.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 178.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 14c | 170.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 26c | 163.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 162$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes | 34c | 148.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 20c | 140.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 21c | 137.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 26c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 23c | 117.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 51c | 114$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 36c | 112.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 102.4$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 80c | 93.81$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 45c | 82.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 62c | 81.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 18c | 79.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 32c | 71.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 72c | 69.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 67.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 63.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 30c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 20c | 61.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 19c | 56.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 21c | 55.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 27c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 51.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 79c | 50.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 40.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 62c | 35.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 72c | 34.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 71c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…2783backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…a559backed Yes | 56c | 29.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 58c | 25.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 79c | 24.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…0ea8backed No | 75c | 24.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 80c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfc…bebfbacked No | 75c | 19.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 80c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.