Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02935e13ae2ebf0fa1bb3719ad676d477203e65507bee836e6ebd93d13028d8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UNLV Runnin' Rebelsof San Diego State Aztecs, UNLV Runnin' Rebels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,197 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed San Diego State Aztecs | 52c | 5,200$2,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,703.95 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 48c | 4,215$2,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,193.23 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 48c | 563.84$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.2 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked San Diego State Aztecs | 52c | 551.92$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.68 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 46c | 347.99$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 50c | 301.05$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.51 | 247 | 37.7%93 W · 154 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 44c | 206.6$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.73 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed San Diego State Aztecs | 56c | 177.88$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 56c | 170.92$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 50c | 165.61$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed San Diego State Aztecs | 56c | 141.57$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 308 | 53.2%164 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 47c | 96.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed San Diego State Aztecs | 52c | 95.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 53c | 93.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…1218backed San Diego State Aztecs | 55c | 79.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed San Diego State Aztecs | 48c | 67.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 48c | 57.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 388 | 37.6%146 W · 242 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed San Diego State Aztecs | 52c | 53.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0107…bce5backed San Diego State Aztecs | 52c | 49.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed San Diego State Aztecs | 51c | 48.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked San Diego State Aztecs | 47c | 42.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed San Diego State Aztecs | 55c | 41.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…440abacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 50c | 36.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed San Diego State Aztecs | 54c | 36.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 54c | 35.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…36c1backed San Diego State Aztecs | 56c | 35.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 48c | 34.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 213 | 42.3%90 W · 123 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 48c | 34.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…b8d3backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 48c | 34.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 48c | 34.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked San Diego State Aztecs | 51c | 33.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 45c | 30.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 48c | 29.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed San Diego State Aztecs | 50c | 25.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 50c | 24.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 48c | 23.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 140 | 49.3%69 W · 71 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-9.5)this page
- Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-10.5)UNLV Runnin' Rebels won
- UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. San Diego State AztecsSan Diego State Aztecs won
- UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. San Diego State Aztecs: O/U 152.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.