Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44ff0dee1a458570b05f801e7d7606996b4843cebb3dd71bbb804beb6f73f75e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UNLV Runnin' Rebelsof San Diego State Aztecs, UNLV Runnin' Rebels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,615 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 53c | 5,759$3,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,706.69 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed San Diego State Aztecs | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked San Diego State Aztecs | 47c | 779.67$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.58 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego State Aztecs | 21c | 738.96$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.78 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x960e…77d6backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 55c | 452.28$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.45 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed San Diego State Aztecs | 51c | 370.81$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.38 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked San Diego State Aztecs | 45c | 280.42$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.19 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 49c | 217$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.67 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed San Diego State Aztecs | 45c | 198.27$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 54c | 134.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 218 | 50.5%110 W · 108 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed San Diego State Aztecs | 49c | 101.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed San Diego State Aztecs | 46c | 100.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 54c | 91.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 54c | 90.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed San Diego State Aztecs | 44c | 85.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 54c | 81.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 225 | 44.9%101 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 52c | 81.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego State Aztecs | 46c | 76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 47c | 74.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed San Diego State Aztecs | 45c | 39.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 54c | 37.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 248 | 57.3%142 W · 106 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 60c | 36.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed San Diego State Aztecs | 47c | 34.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed San Diego State Aztecs | 46c | 32.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed San Diego State Aztecs | 45c | 23.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 276 | 50.7%140 W · 136 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-10.5)this page
- Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-9.5)UNLV Runnin' Rebels won
- UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. San Diego State AztecsSan Diego State Aztecs won
- UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. San Diego State Aztecs: O/U 152.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.