Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0296e0c8239984cd0a7ea7e9c16aeb697a7ee4c41b99bc166dc4a087d1f6aee9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,232 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 0c | 4,177$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 5c | 1,014$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 7c | 439.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 5c | 346.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 335.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 18c | 286.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 284$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 10c | 198.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…618dbacked Yes | 6c | 195$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 7c | 192.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 17c | 138.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 9c | 123.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 76c | 119.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 117.2$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…1744backed Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…528fbacked Yes | 35c | 103.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 27c | 91.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…7b0abacked Yes | 28c | 84.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 79.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 52.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfca…8d8abacked Yes | 28c | 36.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked No | 75c | 32.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc156…08bfbacked No | 77c | 27.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 27.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…17e5backed No | 76c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.