Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e99fc0d6044c255a325b7271f27b7931e77b94aa5b56b8f4bc02119cd5f3942
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,353 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3106…965abacked Yes | 33c | 2,998$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc610…efb7backed Yes | 32c | 2,734$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 1,900$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.73 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…c81fbacked No | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2b56backed No | 67c | 1,498$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad0…3a6cbacked No | 68c | 1,406$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1759…054dbacked No | 68c | 1,328$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ea…4558backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…7516backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed No | 59c | 499.98$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 23c | 400$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8518…bf6bbacked Yes | 45c | 350$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 284$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 46c | 268.66$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.24 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 63c | 209.25$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 158.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 66c | 150.6$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 146.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 33c | 138.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 134.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 134.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 53c | 130$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 126.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 124.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 124.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 41c | 122.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.64 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 63c | 118.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2086…a554backed Yes | 18c | 115$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x956b…65eabacked Yes | 55c | 111.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…e9f4backed Yes | 41c | 108.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 106$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 105.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 44c | 101.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82b…6435backed Yes | 40c | 100.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 51c | 96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…528fbacked Yes | 41c | 92.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 29c | 83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…30f2backed No | 61c | 81.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 33c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 35c | 76.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 39c | 76.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 22c | 68.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 61.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…1744backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 67c | 59.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 31c | 56.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 37c | 54.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 38c | 53.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…4951backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 48.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 40c | 42.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…7b0abacked Yes | 43c | 42.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…f9a2backed Yes | 36c | 41.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 44c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 39.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 72c | 38.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 55c | 37.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfca…8d8abacked Yes | 64c | 36.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 69c | 35.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…581bbacked Yes | 32c | 33.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 47c | 31.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 65c | 30.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…e3babacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 63c | 29.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…e0a2backed Yes | 39c | 27.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 40c | 26.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd08a…60a4backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…6041backed Yes | 57c | 24.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 64c | 23.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…d8d3backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 72c | 18.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe21a…3292backed No | 73c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.