Asian League · resolved market
Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02cf82158d9647791f80bfb7882c9102b73e7ee23ad9dcb0dd9494ea447a7902
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 26c | 4,271$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,159.28 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 69c | 2,330$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613.49 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 78c | 1,663$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.94 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 510.65$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.29 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 19c | 500$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 72c | 344.16$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.6 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…43afbacked Over | 28c | 317.54$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.63 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 35c | 176.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Over | 20c | 147.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.03 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…af29backed Over | 30c | 141.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.68 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 23c | 137.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.24 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 31c | 133.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…df19backed Under | 45c | 129.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4208…a0c2backed Over | 70c | 121.21$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 62c | 117.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 120 | 74.2%89 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 46c | 62.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 66c | 60.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 33c | 59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -8.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 67c | 56.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 79c | 36.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 66 | 92.4%61 W · 5 L | +17.8wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 38c | 34.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b4…470dbacked Under | 49c | 29.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ba…b677backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 78c | 24.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 53 | 69.8%37 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 48c | 23.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 69c | 21.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed Under | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)Vissel Kōbe won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-2.5)Vissel Kōbe won
- Spread: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)FC Tōkyō won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 1.5Over won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 2.5Over won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 4.5Under won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 5.5Under won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō: Vissel Kōbe O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.