Asian League · resolved market
Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6530af4f405712c70ae3f4cb12eb75ff1cfb9f895eaf8f405af46936a85e2c2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 35c | 1,913$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.44 | 825 | 42.4%350 W · 475 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 52c | 1,719$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.31 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Under | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked Under | 17c | 1,417$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.84 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…47b2backed Under | 65c | 923.15$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…1444backed Under | 57c | 611.83$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.7 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x834d…0c31backed Under | 31c | 418.96$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.88 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…ebd0backed Under | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c6…4727backed Over | 45c | 324.59$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.59 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 57c | 267$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.46 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 52c | 215.65$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.64 | 1,053 | 41.9%441 W · 612 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec57…0fa7backed Under | 5c | 207$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…cdf0backed Under | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Under | 8c | 146$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Over | 44c | 129.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 41c | 116.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 45c | 107$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 93.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 1,707 | 50.6%863 W · 844 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 56c | 89.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 69c | 87.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 261 | 48.7%127 W · 134 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 69c | 83.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Under | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 45c | 77.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 735 | 38.6%284 W · 451 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 64.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ba…b677backed Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 69c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 217 | 54.4%118 W · 99 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 434 | 52.1%226 W · 208 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Over | 40c | 38.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…7bd0backed Over | 69c | 17.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)Vissel Kōbe won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-2.5)Vissel Kōbe won
- Spread: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)FC Tōkyō won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 1.5Over won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 3.5Over won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 4.5Under won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 5.5Under won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō: Vissel Kōbe O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.