Australian A League · resolved market
Will Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02d07c5b11309f6de78db18431604ccc8b4e36f7fecec1d0a93453becc5e241a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 2,247$1,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.66 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 1,284$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.05 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,200$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 890.05$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.71 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 77c | 881.99$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.89 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Yes | 21c | 700$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 78c | 618.64$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.9 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 21c | 465.41$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.72 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 22c | 422.26$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…92dfbacked Yes | 22c | 409.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…0c26backed Yes | 9c | 396.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 279.59$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Yes | 28c | 246.79$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…840bbacked No | 80c | 218.13$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 76cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 22c | 181.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 21c | 177.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 18c | 174.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 79c | 167.63$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes | 20c | 126.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 10c | 117.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 24c | 112.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 11c | 103$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a32…9875backed Yes | 11c | 93.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62da…2fdabacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 21c | 63.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -13.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 76c | 61.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6926…a128backed Yes | 24c | 58.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…fd13backed Yes | 23c | 48.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 80c | 16.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a4…5e64backed No | 78c | 16.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 16.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 71c | 14.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…509cbacked No | 80c | 12.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-02-22?No won
- Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-02-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.