TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,477
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,798

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,477 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x57bc…c211backed Yes0c11,513$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c457.9$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes22c453.95$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.195,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes38c364.13$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.64,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes24c278.19$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5173927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6011…b31ebacked No72c272.44$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4416295.7%155 W · 7 L+61.2wins+0.38per pick58cpaid+97.3%equal weight86+0.33 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes15c271.17$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.374,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No36c142.63$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.0745162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes77c117.03$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9089661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes77c109.51$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7854154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No71c109.27$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.378,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No66c106.38$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.383,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.311,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes13c99.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1336123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked Yes17c95.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.311164%71 W · 40 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+70.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed Yes71c93.73$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1824841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No79c84.45$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.72,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4581…91f9backed Yes27c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.64146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes78c74.93$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2949547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No39c65.37$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.653,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No73c64.31$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.569,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x594e…1c11backed No76c63.46$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3866144.5%294 W · 367 L+57.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed No29c60.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8520231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No46c60$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.71,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eaa…3561backed Yes28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5710636.8%39 W · 67 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes23c58.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccf8…8dcbbacked Yes44c56.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.52343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+28.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c54.98$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.91,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes23c52.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.161629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8961…ab1abacked No77c51.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7125466.9%170 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes25c51.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.123,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.911,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.492,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed No23c49.3$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1413728.5%39 W · 98 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes46c46.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3143238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bbd…eac5backed Yes26c45.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.74425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.61,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No28c39.68$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.621,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No53c38.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0699962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed Yes27c38.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.282,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes27c37.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0766735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed No76c33.07$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0717553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7be0…53d0backed No45c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.64751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes58c25.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8743441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No79c25.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.312,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No75c24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No73c22.94$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1971464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No77c22.1$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.11,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed No68c22.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0626861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes67c20.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.991,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.653353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f5d…3384backed No78c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1228270.2%198 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes59c18.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.921,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No72c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.761,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No68c16.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3131219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No69c16.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.142,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No80c15.01$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.