Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02fbe1f4cc89b1f0dfb967c9dae48144d20805361d5f9279e3cb0f0beb6cdb3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57bc…c211backed Yes | 0c | 11,513$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 457.9$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 453.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 364.13$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 24c | 278.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 72c | 272.44$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 271.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 36c | 142.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.07 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 77c | 117.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 77c | 109.51$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 109.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 106.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked Yes | 17c | 95.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 71c | 93.73$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 79c | 84.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…91f9backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 78c | 74.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 39c | 65.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 64.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 76c | 63.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 29c | 60.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 46c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 58.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…8dcbbacked Yes | 44c | 56.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 23c | 52.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 77c | 51.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 51.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed No | 23c | 49.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 46c | 46.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbd…eac5backed Yes | 26c | 45.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 28c | 39.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 53c | 38.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 27c | 38.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 27c | 37.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 76c | 33.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 58c | 25.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 73c | 22.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 77c | 22.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 67c | 20.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 78c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 59c | 18.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 68c | 16.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 16.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 15.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 73°F or below on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.