Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 161.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0307e4ac86ae577a78b06231ba625e43abcce92171eb5a3157d6c7afb5777e6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Over | 50c | 98,718$49,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,536.36 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Under | 50c | 60,000$29,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,144.09 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…0f7abacked Under | 50c | 32,403$16,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,201.58 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 8,211$3,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,256.83 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Over | 52c | 5,259$2,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,722.33 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…42bfbacked Over | 51c | 4,500$2,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,295 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Over | 52c | 4,189$2,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,198.27 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 48c | 2,511$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.72 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Over | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.99 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Over | 52c | 1,566$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.54 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Under | 48c | 1,358$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.12 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 50c | 898.68$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.84 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Under | 50c | 839.99$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.5 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 45c | 800$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7be6backed Under | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…e73abacked Under | 46c | 649$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.23 | 267 | 49.1%131 W · 136 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 48c | 547.33$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.61 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Under | 47c | 504.26$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.26 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 44c | 371$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.76 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Under | 49c | 338.78$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.78 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Under | 49c | 300$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.25 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 47c | 200$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 141 | 51.1%72 W · 69 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…f968backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…68d8backed Over | 57c | 175.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad4d…a35abacked Under | 48c | 129.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +35%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 44c | 115$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Under | 48c | 96.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…ac80backed Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…515fbacked Over | 52c | 37.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…2022backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…6974backed Over | 52c | 30.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 52c | 25.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba2…8f7cbacked Under | 49c | 23.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 356 | 50.8%181 W · 175 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 161.5this page
- Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Arizona State Sun DevilsArizona State Sun Devils won
- Spread: Arizona State Sun Devils (-2.5)Arizona State Sun Devils won
- Spread: Arizona State Sun Devils (-3.5)Arizona State Sun Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.