Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Lillestrøm SK (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0344d7588083b60220b9821e9fc429c3e41d165db867619869159770a66830b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- KF Egnatia Rrogozhinëof Lillestrøm SK, KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Lillestrøm SK | 43c | 1,985$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.95 | 760 | 37.4%284 W · 476 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 57c | 1,535$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.45 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 56c | 400$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 75c | 376.81$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.37 | 2,434 | 37.3%909 W · 1,525 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Lillestrøm SK | 34c | 235.83$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Lillestrøm SK | 42c | 225.22$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…aaf4backed Lillestrøm SK | 11c | 163.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 60c | 146.06$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 59c | 140.94$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Lillestrøm SK | 40c | 74.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 293 | 37.5%110 W · 183 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 57c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 636 | 49.5%315 W · 321 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 62c | 55.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 1,104 | 45.4%501 W · 603 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ab…ecebbacked KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 58c | 47.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,219 | 36.3%442 W · 777 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Lillestrøm SK | 38c | 46.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 891 | 53.4%476 W · 415 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Lillestrøm SK | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5e…9d93backed KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 72c | 37.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 537 | 47.9%257 W · 280 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 277 | 37.9%105 W · 172 L | -17.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed Lillestrøm SK | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf51…7cccbacked KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Lillestrøm SK | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 331 | 42.9%142 W · 189 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…aeb3backed Lillestrøm SK | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…63a5backed KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 58c | 20.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lillestrøm SK (-1.5)this page
- Lillestrøm SK vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Lillestrøm SK vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Lillestrøm SK vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë O/U 1.5Under won
- Lillestrøm SK vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë O/U 2.5Under won
- Lillestrøm SK vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: Lillestrøm SK O/U 0.5Over won
- Lillestrøm SK vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: O/U 1.5Over won
- Lillestrøm SK vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: O/U 2.5Under won
- Lillestrøm SK vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: O/U 3.5Under won
- Lillestrøm SK vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: O/U 4.5Under won
- Lillestrøm SK vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: O/U 5.5Under won
- Lillestrøm SK vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: Team to AdvanceLillestrøm SK won
- Spread: KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë (-1.5)Lillestrøm SK won
- Spread: Lillestrøm SK (-2.5)KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.