Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x036c9e9b75e6d445e0c911928f8af26ed5cf41a80f1f13cc61985ded0cbf2d4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 12c | 594.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 12c | 511.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 12c | 392.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 364.11$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 14c | 321$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 292.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 245.74$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 240.45$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 13c | 234.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 222.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2437…63d5backed Yes | 35c | 210$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes | 13c | 159.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 149.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 18c | 131.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 122.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 32c | 121.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 68c | 116.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 113.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 96.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 33c | 90.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 16c | 82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 34c | 73.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 31c | 63.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 34c | 62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 17c | 57.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 79c | 55.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…eaaebacked Yes | 34c | 54.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa223…0894backed No | 65c | 52.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…2260backed Yes | 38c | 52.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 30c | 51.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 47.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 35c | 41.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 73c | 41.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 30c | 40.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 68c | 38.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 35.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 38c | 35.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 30.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 68c | 29.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 75c | 27.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…e5c6backed No | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 67c | 21.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 70c | 20.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 17.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 64c | 16.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.