TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,277
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,277 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9977…3020backed Yes66c659.69$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.375853.4%31 W · 27 L+9.8wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+188.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes77c650.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.44445.5%20 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9422…a4d5backed No13c599.41$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755666.1%37 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No15c514.18$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.184,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No23c466.26$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.245,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No18c430.96$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2159121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c341$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.782,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No34c300$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.249646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb09c…fe97backed No4c259.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No29c229$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7721268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes50c212$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10649750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No28c157$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.292,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c155.37$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe70a…8084backed No7c154.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff29…f008backed No31c152$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6211950.4%60 W · 59 L+13.9wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+18.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9916…8088backed Yes73c149.97$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No77c146.94$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.762,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No28c132.35$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6197570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No40c130$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.544,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes41c123.5$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.8621236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No20c122.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.923,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No37c120.67$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.322,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed Yes69c118.92$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6960054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No33c113.29$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No10c109$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.365,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94b7…feffbacked No23c108.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes29c103.75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.7512941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes25c101.94$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.793,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc527…773dbacked Yes47c101.4$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.29757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+26.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cd6…092abacked No23c101.32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2824736%89 W · 158 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa70d…63bebacked No34c97.09$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.998940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No11c94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.839159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes26c93.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1262137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes19c91.41$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.997,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa498…727bbacked Yes27c88.72$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.899728.9%28 W · 69 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No23c87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.264,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No26c84.54$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.938258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No16c77.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.721,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No15c76.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.442,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No69c72.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7986173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5470…b04cbacked Yes44c65.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.512100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+115%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No32c63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.223,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No28c62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0912057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbff…06d2backed Yes38c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.399932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f01…4c3abacked No28c56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6816159%95 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No73c53.82$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2950860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes48c52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0443842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No28c48.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.751,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes24c46.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3465934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No28c46.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0252571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes43c46.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.344553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes28c45.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.860739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes24c45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0559125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes61c44.31$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.33,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd992…4a3fbacked Yes77c40.37$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9010…df3ebacked Yes54c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5714144%62 W · 79 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes27c39.36$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7956131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No28c37.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2648672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.961,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a25…8055backed No72c33.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1919764.5%127 W · 70 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No35c31.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1690734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes48c31.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.258446.4%39 W · 45 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes73c30.41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.213644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.367336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.13,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes67c28.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2435742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked Yes44c26.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1641460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbeda…d080backed Yes39c25.95$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.95714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No67c25.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1699963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No79c24.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.734,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No53c24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.721,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No74c22.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.561,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x429c…5f41backed Yes49c20.41$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4110745.8%49 W · 58 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No64c20.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1382562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad0d…8f33backed No73c19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8712174.4%90 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb545…589cbacked Yes64c17.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.391060%6 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9791…a14abacked Yes78c17.14$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.819461.9%120 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed Yes71c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9351553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e93…be55backed Yes78c15.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.271070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.