Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0391357a6cdb0d73927fda4f98a20f13e2e5dfbddf6521f121f988a7d35d885a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 407.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 35c | 250.02$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 36c | 234.67$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes | 41c | 232.17$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.07 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 25c | 207.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 72c | 180.55$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 155.93$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 61c | 148.56$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 77c | 131$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 20c | 117.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 16c | 106.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 20c | 100.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 35c | 87.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 28c | 82.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…86cabacked No | 67c | 79.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 19c | 75.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 75.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 18c | 74.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 69.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 68.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 64c | 64.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 40c | 58.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 57.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 38c | 53.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked No | 77c | 52.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +7.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef1…e6e7backed No | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bac…4e7ebacked Yes | 41c | 48.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 78c | 44.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed Yes | 37c | 43.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked Yes | 28c | 40.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 34.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 39c | 29.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 71c | 29.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…9dadbacked No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 51c | 23.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…4dd2backed No | 72c | 17.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0196…6005backed No | 74c | 14.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.48per pick | 62cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…6df4backed No | 78c | 13.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.