Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x250cc1e2af2ffc4ce04d29dd38883b369956b886d34e7c1e28a37c34f1a104a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed No | 65c | 309.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 35c | 249.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.49 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 33c | 213.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 32c | 199.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 80c | 171.94$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 24c | 160.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…8f51backed No | 16c | 152.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 149.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 139.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed Yes | 77c | 123.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 59c | 123.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…6987backed Yes | 67c | 116.53$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 66c | 102.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…bd7dbacked No | 23c | 99.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 12c | 93.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 36c | 93.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 82.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb27…cc9dbacked Yes | 46c | 76.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 45c | 67.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 58c | 67.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 60.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 38c | 58.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 27c | 55.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 38c | 52.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bac…4e7ebacked Yes | 39c | 51.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 73c | 50.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 65c | 46.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 63c | 42.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc585…c51ebacked Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 42.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 42.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 44c | 40.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 38.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 37.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 35c | 35.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 33c | 32.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 49c | 30.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 59c | 29.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 43c | 29.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 56c | 29.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 27.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x620b…fca3backed No | 63c | 27.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 65c | 23.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 67c | 20.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd64f…b551backed Yes | 58c | 20.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2318…bbbfbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…c6dcbacked No | 68c | 16.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3916…aef5backed Yes | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 66c | 16.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…4470backed Yes | 77c | 15.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.