Mls · resolved market
Will Austin FC win on 2025-11-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03993aeb7c2c686704e3146600a1054f5717f4c963ae1c6ffc0a47c08f75718d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 26c | 4,100$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…90b2backed No | 80c | 3,975$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 20c | 3,530$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.66 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…f726backed No | 76c | 2,000$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 77c | 1,284$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.92 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 74c | 998.06$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.5 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 904$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.04 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Yes | 24c | 583.33$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 20c | 566$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.7 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 27c | 372.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 19c | 314.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 74c | 259.77$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b4…ce67backed No | 76c | 231.67$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9be…27bcbacked Yes | 26c | 194.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 9c | 190$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6861…9900backed Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…08d8backed Yes | 26c | 163.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…6438backed Yes | 27c | 162.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 79c | 151.03$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…b993backed Yes | 24c | 136.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…6240backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 74c | 60.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0953…9283backed No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austin FC win on 2025-11-02?this page
- Will Austin FC vs. Los Angeles FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Los Angeles FC win on 2025-11-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.