Fifa International · resolved market
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03a3e7650d8474c799ec8dd03476b69279259463edf443729f7770220b5565aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 4c | 2,316$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…92ddbacked Under | 2c | 1,827$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 18c | 937.65$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.13 | 216 | 30.1%65 W · 151 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 79c | 791.36$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.17 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 46c | 708.4$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.84 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Over | 21c | 617.9$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.54 | 302 | 20.2%61 W · 241 L | -15.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 20c | 564.56$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.65 | 592 | 30.1%178 W · 414 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 21c | 514.18$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.18 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 21c | 376.71$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.71 | 308 | 36%111 W · 197 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 19c | 347.37$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.37 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 17c | 249.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.49 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 19c | 207$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.67 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Over | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…25d9backed Over | 22c | 166.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…5e8bbacked Under | 78c | 166.84$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 16c | 160.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.42 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 16c | 159.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.29 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…beaebacked Over | 22c | 156.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.76 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 79c | 148.47$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.52 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Under | 29c | 125.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19ee…446cbacked Over | 64c | 103.36$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x492f…bc51backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 76c | 65.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 200 | 67.5%135 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f1…3fd9backed Under | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 80c | 63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 451 | 20.6%93 W · 358 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 80c | 48.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 436 | 53.7%234 W · 202 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…60d6backed Under | 67c | 31.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699a…e79dbacked Under | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 78c | 14.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 341 | 44.3%151 W · 190 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- United States vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Belgium (-1.5)Belgium won
- Spread: Belgium (-2.5)Belgium won
- Spread: United States (-1.5)Belgium won
- Spread: United States (-2.5)Belgium won
- United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- United States vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5Over won
- United States vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.