Us Politics · resolved market
Will Ahsha Safai win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03ae1b62fa4eea75c286e9d461afa30d943be864f61dcc1f86f6764c4ec099c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $992,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $992,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a11…8cbbbacked Yes | 1c | 46,464$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488b…44c4backed Yes | 1c | 43,560$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x631e…4f31backed Yes | 1c | 42,108$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0356…da8bbacked Yes | 1c | 42,108$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8814…3991backed Yes | 1c | 39,204$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a4…a11cbacked Yes | 1c | 37,752$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ea…23d6backed Yes | 1c | 36,300$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x615a…00d5backed Yes | 1c | 36,300$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb0…4d5ebacked Yes | 1c | 34,848$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ce…910cbacked Yes | 1c | 34,848$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2f…a0d1backed Yes | 1c | 34,848$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d67…20dcbacked Yes | 1c | 34,848$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…bf0cbacked Yes | 1c | 31,944$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…3909backed Yes | 1c | 30,492$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…4acfbacked Yes | 1c | 30,492$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68b2…d603backed Yes | 1c | 27,588$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d5…e023backed Yes | 1c | 24,684$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd6…6f2dbacked Yes | 1c | 24,684$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…12e0backed Yes | 1c | 21,780$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…520cbacked Yes | 1c | 21,780$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…f6e6backed Yes | 1c | 21,780$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…9f85backed Yes | 1c | 18,876$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032d…ede2backed Yes | 1c | 18,876$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…5ba3backed Yes | 1c | 17,424$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd159…65a8backed Yes | 1c | 17,424$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…b39cbacked Yes | 1c | 17,424$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb367…d911backed Yes | 1c | 17,424$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…e408backed Yes | 1c | 15,972$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x264f…95fabacked Yes | 1c | 15,972$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5163…8316backed Yes | 1c | 15,972$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f5…742abacked Yes | 1c | 15,972$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5102…95babacked Yes | 1c | 14,520$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889f…a40cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,616$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…8654backed Yes | 1c | 11,616$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…cababacked Yes | 1c | 10,164$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1156…3cadbacked Yes | 1c | 7,260$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,441$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f3…c32bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,905$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ahsha Safai win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?this page
- Will Aaron Peskin win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
- Will Daniel Lurie win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?Yes won
- Will London Breed win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
- Will Mark Farrell win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
- Will another candidate win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.