Us Politics · resolved market
Will London Breed win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03b1b701e27f1e2c7b4e2cf2994342de0f625990e0e223bb18e05aed5f0033b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…d1c7backed Yes | 40c | 2,150$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 22c | 1,513$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.97 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83b…3472backed Yes | 15c | 1,375$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked Yes | 56c | 1,155$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…e83cbacked Yes | 21c | 728.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 14c | 624.56$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 594.23$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 28c | 423.83$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.24 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5791…f4dabacked Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 264.38$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.09 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…4ab8backed Yes | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74b1…ec47backed Yes | 55c | 246.2$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +408%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 26c | 227.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…5c9fbacked No | 65c | 207.2$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +253.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 16c | 192.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…1d13backed No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x628c…83d1backed Yes | 52c | 180.52$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 62c | 176.01$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc8…5575backed Yes | 53c | 171.55$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…728dbacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 19c | 131.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…dd52backed Yes | 19c | 124.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee8…1b93backed No | 80c | 109.41$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 68c | 105.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…d842backed Yes | 53c | 89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 86.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…4c12backed No | 71c | 77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87f9…9d8ebacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -93.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…7affbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 40c | 49.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…545dbacked No | 78c | 39.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…6ea2backed Yes | 38c | 31.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will London Breed win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?this page
- Will Aaron Peskin win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
- Will Ahsha Safai win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
- Will Daniel Lurie win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?Yes won
- Will Mark Farrell win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
- Will another candidate win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.