Us Politics · resolved market
Will Mark Farrell win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5302159c56d53629bac419423aa4b67f8d116d8ff79449886c9aa705aef15cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f63…c7b4backed No | 65c | 15,750$10,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,475.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579f…8126backed Yes | 35c | 15,600$5,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,423.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes | 40c | 11,610$4,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,677.12 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…cf95backed No | 77c | 1,787$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…787bbacked Yes | 33c | 876.03$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 34c | 854$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.87 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 34c | 512.01$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.86 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…d1c7backed No | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 17c | 460.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 43c | 450$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76df…6b96backed Yes | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked Yes | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5791…f4dabacked Yes | 13c | 384.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 23c | 336$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 48c | 285.92$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.82 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 272.21$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 255.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b1…ec47backed No | 68c | 240.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +408%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…a293backed Yes | 21c | 238.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 25c | 227.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 47c | 222$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 69c | 210$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf0…3b75backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…3ebbbacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 32c | 182.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 61c | 149.77$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 139.03$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 62c | 71.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed No | 61c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +229.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…4c12backed Yes | 47c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f9…9d8ebacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…dd52backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c8…d055backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa7…fe5ebacked No | 53c | 37.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9c…5aeabacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2852…2d6cbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc7…0b2ebacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…6ea2backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25de…7efdbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mark Farrell win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?this page
- Will Aaron Peskin win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
- Will Ahsha Safai win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
- Will Daniel Lurie win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?Yes won
- Will London Breed win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
- Will another candidate win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.