Us Politics · resolved market
Will another candidate win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7910186d2c4e764dd3966f40e34eb0eace201850ad5c7bfba0f30e70bcda98ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $259,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $259,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b46…1b8fbacked Yes | 0c | 17,400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c0…4c75backed Yes | 0c | 16,800$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…0ea1backed Yes | 0c | 15,600$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…68f8backed Yes | 0c | 15,600$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc304…e2b8backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356c…8030backed Yes | 0c | 13,800$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b12…3196backed Yes | 0c | 13,200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…3dbfbacked Yes | 0c | 12,600$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdca…1f0bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b9…a0d2backed Yes | 0c | 7,800$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x678c…af9ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,800$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9626…3e46backed Yes | 0c | 7,800$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…46ccbacked Yes | 0c | 7,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf973…6800backed Yes | 0c | 5,400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7221…21c0backed Yes | 0c | 5,400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1125…b000backed Yes | 0c | 4,800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78f1…b2e1backed Yes | 0c | 4,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,915$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff1…a752backed Yes | 0c | 3,600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another candidate win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?this page
- Will Aaron Peskin win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
- Will Ahsha Safai win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
- Will Daniel Lurie win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?Yes won
- Will London Breed win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
- Will Mark Farrell win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.