Us Politics · resolved market
Will Daniel Lurie win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b6a26ae95fbf42976c5bee361e287ef5b5ae6cfc01eb7831efed7ba190b6318
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 21c | 4,764$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.52 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes | 12c | 3,786$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,321.46 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 8c | 3,507$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,222.08 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7a…ccc6backed Yes | 45c | 2,888$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 28c | 1,470$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.63 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…4d31backed No | 65c | 1,302$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…728dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,275$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 16c | 760.74$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.28 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 741.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked No | 64c | 586.49$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 3c | 520.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 48c | 500.84$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.14 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 11c | 500$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.08 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 26c | 421.11$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.28 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83b…3472backed Yes | 55c | 414$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 64c | 410.08$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.18 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…d70ebacked No | 3c | 403.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed Yes | 8c | 383.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.74 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +8.3wins | +0.32per pick | 14cpaid | +308.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x74b1…ec47backed Yes | 7c | 341.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +408%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 37c | 314.28$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 14c | 313.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +82%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…07cebacked Yes | 61c | 281.97$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 39c | 259.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.1 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 38c | 227.12$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.47 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 39c | 203.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.27 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1efa…6a86backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 46c | 180.47$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…cf95backed Yes | 62c | 135.55$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51c1…86a2backed Yes | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6b…7b67backed No | 48c | 104.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…5429backed No | 12c | 85.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf94a…ecdfbacked No | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ca…ec75backed No | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f0…c92bbacked No | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb598…6a1ebacked Yes | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Daniel Lurie win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?this page
- Will Aaron Peskin win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
- Will Ahsha Safai win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
- Will London Breed win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
- Will Mark Farrell win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
- Will another candidate win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.