NHL · resolved market
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03bc017ae73ff5d526311e6c15d046b1017c2a001b94de613778255046bc7991
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sharksof Ducks, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Ducks | 40c | 1,331$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.4 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sharks | 60c | 1,309$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.07 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Sharks | 61c | 1,149$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.28 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Ducks | 39c | 576.22$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.73 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Ducks | 39c | 400$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Sharks | 60c | 192$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Sharks | 60c | 163$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Sharks | 60c | 130$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Sharks | 60c | 129$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Ducks | 40c | 121.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Sharks | 60c | 121$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Ducks | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Sharks | 60c | 109$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Sharks | 60c | 105$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Sharks | 59c | 102.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Sharks | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +16.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Ducks | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Sharks | 57c | 98.28$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Ducks | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Ducks | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Sharks | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Sharks | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Sharks | 60c | 61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Sharks | 60c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Ducks | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cac1backed Ducks | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Ducks | 40c | 49.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Ducks | 40c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Sharks | 60c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Ducks | 40c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3708…96a0backed Ducks | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Ducks | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed Ducks | 40c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Sharks | 60c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed Ducks | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Ducks | 40c | 36.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Ducks | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Ducks | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Ducks | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e71…8913backed Ducks | 40c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Ducks | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Ducks | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Ducks | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked Ducks | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed Ducks | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Ducks | 41c | 27.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4b…fa4cbacked Ducks | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Ducks | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Ducks | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…7b2ebacked Ducks | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed Ducks | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaaf…8beebacked Sharks | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…3e63backed Sharks | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Sharks | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)this page
- Sharks vs. DucksSharks won
- Sharks vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.