Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03c23822a61a8fc8b50b804b7a7e3a1dacbe039e5c5dc9eef377d938ee2eaf90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 39c | 574.36$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.82 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 8c | 365.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 4c | 341.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 321.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 7c | 295.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 7c | 271.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 79c | 125.87$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 58c | 125$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 115$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 45c | 110$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 92.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 89.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 83.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 74.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 74.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 59c | 67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 62.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 58.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b10…523bbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 68c | 49.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 38c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 64c | 42.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 31c | 42.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 30c | 41.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 36c | 40.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…818ebacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…3327backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes | 37c | 38.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 69c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 35.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 34.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 64c | 32.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 31.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 50 | 82%41 W · 9 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 23.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 23.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 62c | 21.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 60c | 21.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 21.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…462ebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 58c | 18.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 17.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 79c | 17.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 16.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.