Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f868eaef535afc2b01171d0693603f8003106593ae2c173576cefb72518bbb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.96 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 16c | 211.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 7c | 210.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.28 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3f…5575backed Yes | 7c | 205.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,416.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…d541backed Yes | 70c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 193$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 23c | 182.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 7c | 163.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 160.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 49c | 144.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.31 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11ed…01e6backed Yes | 12c | 143.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 37c | 136.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eee…d015backed Yes | 64c | 102.61$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked No | 12c | 99.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 41c | 78.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 13c | 77.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 49c | 69.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed No | 80c | 64.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 49c | 60.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 76c | 60.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 39c | 59.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 57c | 53.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 52c | 52.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 33c | 51.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 50c | 51.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bf…ef7cbacked Yes | 42c | 47.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 64c | 46.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 42.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 63c | 41.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 36.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 63c | 35.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 52c | 34.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 61c | 33.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 31c | 32.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…10e2backed Yes | 42c | 30.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +205.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 58c | 30.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed No | 40c | 29.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 47c | 25.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 59c | 24.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 71c | 18.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 16.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 78c | 14.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.