Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55a4da0b468a3c0f6851b4f51da0b5b3f6d8baf867f46d87ca78cf0051425897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 47c | 723.14$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.03 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 4c | 556.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 45c | 515.43$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.73 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 72c | 415.63$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.44 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 4c | 319.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 6c | 316.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…ee36backed Yes | 6c | 182.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 144.19$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 124.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 28c | 120.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…608dbacked Yes | 38c | 118.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 118.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 42c | 118$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed No | 70c | 117.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 109.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 46c | 105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 102.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 96.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 44c | 93.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 91.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 12c | 91.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 80.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 79.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 56c | 78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 66c | 77.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 39c | 73.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 41c | 72.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 30c | 66.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 77c | 62.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 44c | 59.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 58.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 39c | 57.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11ed…01e6backed Yes | 43c | 51.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 50.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 44c | 49.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 39c | 46.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 69c | 45.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 55c | 45.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 42.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 51c | 39.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 34.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes | 43c | 34.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 58c | 32.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 55c | 28.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 45c | 26.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f0…f10dbacked No | 58c | 25.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 45c | 25.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 56c | 25.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 25.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…ff8fbacked No | 57c | 24.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 56c | 24.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 58c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 59c | 22.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 61c | 21.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 61c | 21.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 57c | 20.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 69c | 20.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 52c | 19.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ae…d53dbacked No | 59c | 17.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 17.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 66c | 17.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.